In recent years, the global food and beverage industry has faced significant disruptions, particularly in the supply of cocoa, citrus and coffee.

Each of these raw materials are frequently used in many products consumed in every region of the world.  These challenges have led to a surge in prices, scarcity and supply chain disruptions not only impacting both the food and beverage industry, but also retailers and consumers.

What are the challenges causing these issues and what is being done to address these serious issues?

Cocoa Supply Challenges

The cocoa industry, primarily concentrated in West Africa, has been hit hard by a combination of environmental, economic and human factors.  Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which produce around 60% of the world’s cocoa¹, have seen a sharp decline in production.

With this significant share of the global production, any disruptions will have a substantial impact to the market.  This sharp decline can be linked to several factors:

• • • Climate change:  Climate change is a major driver of the cocoa shortage.  Shifting and adverse weather patterns has led to unpredictable temperature extremes and variable rainfall has impacted cocoa trees, which are particularly vulnerable to these challenges².
    • El Niño Impact: The El Niño phenomenon, characterised by warming sea surfaces temperature in the Pacific Ocean, further exacerbates the issues caused by climate change. El Niño causes both drought-like conditions or increased heavy rainfall.  Drought often leading to the cocoa trees becoming stressed and warm weather with rainfall allow for disease, both significantly reducing yields.
    • Plant Diseases: Cocoa trees are susceptible various diseases and pests, which great negatively impact yields.  For example, Black Pod disease is a fungal infection thrives in humid climates, severely affecting cocoa trees in Ghana³.  Swollen Root virus also contributes to loss of yield as infected cocoa trees are cut down to reduce spread⁴.
    • Aging trees: Many cocoa tree farms (particular in West Africa), have aging trees that become less productive and more susceptible to disease as they age.  This, underinvestment in farms, hinder farmers from replanting newer, more resilient crops⁵.
    • Labour shortages: In addition to environmental and economic challenges, labour shortages have plagued the industry.  Cocoa farmers often have challenges finding and retaining skilled workers⁶.
    • Deforestation: Deforestation, driven by the expansion of cocoa plantations has also greatly impacted cocoa production.  Clearing forests disrupts key ecosystems, reduces biodiversity, and negatively impacts soil quality.  This has led to lower yields and increased vulnerability to disease and pests.

These supply challenges meant that 2024 cocoa prices were not only quite volatile but also resulted in a significant price increase for cocoa derived raw materials.

This ripple effect is still felt across the food industry, particularly among chocolate manufacturers who rely heavily on West African cocoa.  Many manufacturers are now looking to stockpile their cocoa resources in an attempt to reduce future uncertainties in their supply chains.

Such market dynamics have resulted in fast-tracked innovations in the chocolate industry, with ingredient alternatives for cocoa getting more media coverage than ever before.

Although benefits for such alternatives needs to go far beyond just cost.  Innovations and solutions for cocoa will need to deliver on sustainable impacts as well with clear long-term sustainability that can benefit both manufacturers and consumers.

Citrus Supply Challenges

The citrus industry is also grappling with severe supply issues.  Brazil and the US, which dominate the global orange juice market (with a combined 34% of the global orange production)^8,10, are facing their own challenges.

Brazil is experiencing its smallest crop in decades due to severe drought and citrus greening disease, while Florida’s groves are similarly afflicted.

Catastrophic floods in Spain, another major citrus producer (number 6 in the world)⁷, have also devastated crops, leading to substantial financial losses.

These disruptions have led to a significant shortage of oranges, driving up the cost of orange juice by 130% year-on-year¹¹.

Retailers and food manufacturers are being forced to innovate, with some turning to alternative fruits like mandarins to meet consumer demand.

Coffee Supply Challenges

The coffee industry is no stranger to supply challenges either.

Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam, the top coffee producers, are facing a combination of adverse weather conditions, labour shortages and logistical hurdles.

Brazil, in particular, has been hit by severe droughts and frosts, leading to a significant reduction in coffee yields¹².  These supply constraints have caused coffee prices to soar, affecting both retailers and consumers.

Coffee shops and grocery stores are struggling to maintain stock levels, and consumers are feeling the pinch with higher prices for their daily caffeine fix.

Impact on the Food Industry and Retailers

The supply challenges in cocoa, citrus and coffee have far-reaching implications for the food industry and retailers.

Commodity inflation has become a significant concern, with the cost of ingredients rising sharply.  This has led to higher prices for end products, from chocolate bars to orange juice and coffee.

Retailers are caught in a difficult position, balancing the need to pass on increased costs to consumers while managing their reputation.

It’s important to recognise that all the recent scrutiny around such commodities can influence long term product ideation and development for food and beverage manufacturers.

Food manufacturers are exploring innovative solutions to mitigate the impact of supply shortages, such as diversifying their product lines and sourcing alternative ingredients (for example using mandarin juice in place of orange juice)¹³.  Additionally, these reformulations need to consider the impact on taste and cost within the final product, optimising for consumer preferences.

In conclusion, the commodity crisis affecting cocoa, citrus and coffee underscores the vulnerability of global supply chains to environmental and economic disruptions.  As the food industry and retailers navigate these challenges, consumers are likely to continue facing higher prices for their favourite products.

One of the most common criticisms of nutrition science is how confusing it can be.  Recommendations will change from “eggs are unhealthy, avoid them” to “eggs are healthy, eat more of them” in a short time span.

The purpose of this article to explain why this happens.  The reality is, nutrition is a relatively new and constantly evolving science.

It’s a good thing that we see dietary recommendations change, because it means we learned something new and can apply those learnings to improve health.

The downside is it results in confusing messages for people.  So, let’s walk through a couple of the most confusing food stories in recent decades and see what there is to learn.

Foods like eggs or coffee, staples for breakfasts far and wide, have both been a part of the human diet for centuries.  For many years, though, we were encouraged not to consume them regularly lest we shorten our life span.

For eggs, the concern was focused on the amount of cholesterol in an egg, thought to be associated with heart disease.

For coffee, it was the caffeine.  So, when did the egg- and coffee-shaming begin?

Are Eggs Healthy or Not?

It all began in 1968 when the American Heart Association (AHA) recommended that people consume no more than three eggs yolks per week to lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) [AHA 1968].

From the perspective of a health care provider, it was simple to explain to explain the link between dietary cholesterol and high blood cholesterol, and for patients it was an easy dietary modification.  It appeared to be a win-win for everyone, unless you were an egg farmer.

Not until 1999, when Hu et al. published a large, long-term population study on egg intake and heart disease incidence did we start looking at the egg differently.  The study, which included over 117,000 men and women, found  there was no difference in CVD risk between people who ate one egg/week and those who ate one egg /day.

Since then, multiple epidemiological and meta-analyses have reached the same conclusion [McNamara 2015].

Eggs Are More Than Their Cholesterol Content

One theory is that dietary cholesterol does not impact our blood cholesterol as much as we once thought.  Another theory, which is becoming more common in nutrition science, is that foods can be more than the sum of their parts, just as we’ve seen with dairy.

The ‘incredible edible egg’ is packed full with all kinds of nutritional goodies.

One medium egg does have half of the daily value for cholesterol, but with it comes 6 grams of complete protein and many micronutrients that many people in the US do not get enough of, like calcium, potassium, and choline, according to the 2015 Dietary Guidelines.

For egg-lovers and the egg farmers, nutrition science continues to show how important eggs are in our diet.  Two recent studies have further supported the health benefits of eggs.

The first, a 9-year cohort study, examined the effect of egg consumption in over 415,000 subjects who were free of any chronic disease (e.g. heart disease, diabetes) at the beginning of the study.  Researchers found that 13% of the subjects had at least one or more servings of eggs a day, and 9% rarely consumed eggs.

After nine years, the people that ate eggs every day had lower overall heart disease risk, with up to 26% less risk of haemorrhagic stroke, 28% less risk of dying from a haemorrhagic stroke, and 18% less risk of lethal complication from CVD.

The second study was designed to determine the effects of either high (>12 eggs/wk) or low (<2 eggs/wk) egg consumption in people with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes (T2D) on a 3-month energy-restricted diet [Fuller 2018].

Weight loss was similar between groups and there were no differences between groups in glycemia, traditional serum lipids, markers of inflammation, or oxidative stress. Interestingly, the presence of 12 eggs/week did not lead to weight gain [Fuller 2018].

Our understanding of egg’s role in a healthy diet has evolved quite a bit since 1968, which is why we have seen recommendations change over that period of time.

Is Coffee Healthy or Not?

“Coffee: it will stunt your growth, give you a stomach ulcer and increase your risk for heart disease!” Does this quote sound familiar?  For years doctors warned their patients not to drink coffee because of its purported negative health effects.

There was also concern that when people drink coffee, they would become addicted to the “energy” they felt from the caffeine.

As people increased their coffee consumption, they would develop a tolerance to caffeine and would need to drink more coffee in order to get that energized feeling.

Thankfully for the more than 60% of Americans that drink at least one cup of coffee a day, research is now starting to highlight coffee’s positive health benefits and debunk the previous negative [Daily Coffee News].

So, why the change in heart? It is partly due to the recognition that the earlier studies on coffee did not account for common high-risk behaviours among heavy coffee drinkers (e.g. smoking, alcohol, physical inactivity) that each have their own role in heart disease risk [Mayo Clinic].  

Scientists are also now identifying many components in coffee with potential healthful benefits (e.g. antioxidants, caffeic acid, cafestol, and so on) [Mellbye 2018, Kang 2009].   

Other studies have suggested that drinking 3-4 cups of coffee per day is associated with ~25% lower risk of developing T2D compared to people consuming < 2 cups coffee per day [Huxley 2009, Santos 2016, Jiang 2014].

Where do things stand now?  The 2015 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee reviewed the literature on coffee’s link to health, and found that moderate coffee consumption is associated with a reduced risk of heart disease and stroke.

The science also showed that both decaffeinated and caffeinated coffee were associated with a reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

Finally, caffeine intake from coffee was associated with improved cognitive health and could play a role in preventing Parkinson’s disease [Scientific Report of the 2015 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee].

Coffee, Cancer, and California: Missing the Forest for the Trees

Despite this evidence, debate around coffee continues.  In 2018, California made an attempt to require warnings on coffee regarding a possible role in causing cancer, under Proposition 65, due to its acrylamide content.

Scientists across the globe gathered to debate this legislation, due to the association between coffee consumption and the positive health outcomes listed above, and the legislation was eventually overturned.

This is a great example of the mistakes that can be made when we focus on one specific chemical or nutrient in a food, rather than the whole food’s role in health.

Moderation is key

While it the tide has definitely changed for coffee and health, it is important to keep in mind that the too much of anything is not necessarily a good thing, and coffee is no exception.

For example, high consumption of unfiltered coffee (boiled or espresso) has been associated with mild elevations in serum cholesterol [Scientific Report of the 2015 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee].

It is also generally recommended that people consume no more than 200 mg of caffeine at once, and no more than 400 mg of caffeine over the course of a day [ILSI NA].

We are still learning how different individuals metabolise caffeine, so these are recommendations for populations rather than specific individuals.

The Bottom Line: Use Moderation and Focus on the Big Picture

The verdict for eggs and coffee- they have their place in a healthy diet, but moderation is key.  So go ahead and have coffee with your eggs in the morning, just keep an eye on the calories you may be adding to the eggs with different ingredients (e.g. butter) or the cream, sugar, or syrups in coffee.