In recent years, the global food and beverage industry has faced significant disruptions, particularly in the supply of cocoa, citrus, and coffee. Each of these raw materials are frequently used in many products consumed in every region of the world. These challenges have led to a surge in prices, scarcity, and supply chain disruptions not only impacting both the food and beverage industry, but also retailers and consumers. What are the challenges causing these issues and what is being done to address these serious issues?
Cocoa Supply Challenges
The cocoa industry, primarily concentrated in West Africa, has been hit hard by a combination of environmental, economic, and human factors. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which produce around 60% of the world’s cocoa1, have seen a sharp decline in production. With this significant share of the global production, any disruptions will have a substantial impact to the market. This sharp decline can be linked to several factors:
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- Climate change: Climate change is a major driver of the cocoa shortage. Shifting and adverse weather patterns has led to unpredictable temperature extremes and variable rainfall has impacted cocoa trees, which are particularly vulnerable to these challenges.2
- El Niño Impact: The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by warming sea surfaces temperature in the Pacific Ocean, further exacerbates the issues caused by climate change. El Niño causes both drought-like conditions or increased heavy rainfall. Drought often leading to the cocoa trees becoming stressed and warm weather with rainfall allow for disease, both significantly reducing yields.
- Plant Diseases: Cocoa trees are susceptible various diseases and pests, which great negatively impact yields. For example, Black Pod disease is a fungal infection thrives in humid climates, severely affecting cocoa trees in Ghana.3 Swollen Root virus also contributes to loss of yield as infected cocoa trees are cut down to reduce spread.4
- Aging trees: Many cocoa tree farms (particular in West Africa), have aging trees that become less productive and more susceptible to disease as they age. This, underinvestment in farms, hinder farmers from replanting newer, more resilient crops.5
- Labor shortages: In addition to environmental and economic challenges, labor shortages have plagued the industry. Cocoa farmers often have challenges finding and retaining skilled workers.6
- Deforestation: Deforestation, driven by the expansion of cocoa plantations has also greatly impacted cocoa production. Clearing forests disrupts key ecosystems, reduces biodiversity, and negatively impacts soil quality. This has led to lower yields and increased vulnerability to disease and pests.
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These supply challenges meant that 2024 cocoa prices were not only quite volatile but also resulted in a significant price increase for cocoa derived raw materials. This ripple effect is still felt across the food industry, particularly among chocolate manufacturers who rely heavily on West African cocoa. Many manufacturers are now looking to stockpile their cocoa resources in an attempt to reduce future uncertainties in their supply chains.
Such market dynamics have resulted in fast-tracked innovations in the chocolate industry, with ingredient alternatives for cocoa getting more media coverage than ever before. Although benefits for such alternatives needs to go far beyond just cost. Innovations and solutions for cocoa will need to deliver on sustainable impacts as well with clear long-term sustainability that can benefit both manufacturers and consumers.
Citrus Supply Challenges
The citrus industry is also grappling with severe supply issues. Brazil and the United States, which dominate the global orange juice market (with a combined 34% of the global orange production) 8,10, are facing their own challenges. Brazil is experiencing its smallest crop in decades due to severe drought and citrus greening disease, while Florida’s groves are similarly afflicted. Catastrophic floods in Spain, another major citrus producer (number 6 in the world7), have also devastated crops, leading to substantial financial losses. These disruptions have led to a significant shortage of oranges, driving up the cost of orange juice by 130% year-on-year11. Retailers and food manufacturers are being forced to innovate, with some turning to alternative fruits like mandarins to meet consumer demand.
Coffee Supply Challenges
The coffee industry is no stranger to supply challenges either. Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam, the top coffee producers, are facing a combination of adverse weather conditions, labor shortages, and logistical hurdles. Brazil, in particular, has been hit by severe droughts and frosts, leading to a significant reduction in coffee yields12. These supply constraints have caused coffee prices to soar, affecting both retailers and consumers. Coffee shops and grocery stores are struggling to maintain stock levels, and consumers are feeling the pinch with higher prices for their daily caffeine fix.
Impact on the Food Industry and Retailers
The supply challenges in cocoa, citrus, and coffee have far-reaching implications for the food industry and retailers. Commodity inflation has become a significant concern, with the cost of ingredients rising sharply. This has led to higher prices for end products, from chocolate bars to orange juice and coffee. Retailers are caught in a difficult position, balancing the need to pass on increased costs to consumers while managing their reputation.
It’s important to recognize that all the recent scrutiny around such commodities can influence long term product ideation and development for food and beverage manufacturers. Food manufacturers are exploring innovative solutions to mitigate the impact of supply shortages, such as diversifying their product lines and sourcing alternative ingredients (for example using mandarin juice in place of orange juice13). Additionally, these reformulations need to consider the impact on taste and cost within the final product, optimising for consumer preferences.
In conclusion, the commodity crisis affecting cocoa, citrus, and coffee underscores the vulnerability of global supply chains to environmental and economic disruptions. As the food industry and retailers navigate these challenges, consumers are likely to continue facing higher prices for their favorite products.
Contributors:
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References
- Is Cocoa in Crisis? – Rising Costs & the Challenges Facing Chocolate | Edlong, accessed January 15, 2025, https://edlong.com/is-cocoa-in-crisis-rising-costs-the-challenges-facing-chocolate/
- Climate-related cocoa shortages put strain on the global chocolate industry – Marketplace, accessed January 15, 2025, https://www.marketplace.org/2025/01/03/climate-related-cocoa-shortages-put-strain-on-the-global-chocolate-industry/
- The Global Cocoa Shortage – Savour School, accessed January 15, 2025, https://savourschool.com.au/news/the-global-cocoa-shortage/
- Agusto FB, Leite MCA, Owusu-Ansah F, Domfeh O, Hritonenko N, Chen-Charpentier B. Cacao sustainability: The case of cacao swollen-shoot virus co-infection. PLoS One. 2024 Mar 7;19(3):e0294579. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294579. PMID: 38451893; PMCID: PMC10919592.
- The Impact of Rising Cocoa Prices | J.P. Morgan Research, accessed January 15, 2025, https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/cocoa-prices
- What caused the chocolate shortage? | FYI – Vocal Media, accessed January 15, 2025, https://vocal.media/fyi/what-caused-the-chocolate-shortage
- Top countries for Citrus Production – Source FAO
- Oranges | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
- The global orange juice crisis is caused by disease and bad weather., accessed January 15, 2025, https://www.salon.com/2024/06/10/the-global-orange-juice-is-caused-by-disease-and-weather_partner/
- Global orange shortages worsen as extreme weather disrupts harvests and drives prices up, accessed January 15, 2025, https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9691175/global-orange-shortages-worsen-as-extreme-weather-disrupts-harvests-and-drives-prices-up/
- Why Global Orange Shortage is Forcing Industry to Innovate | Supply Chain Magazine
- Why is there a global coffee shortage in 2021 – GEP, accessed January 15, 2025, https://www.gep.com/blog/mind/coffee-shortage-reasons-brazil-columbia-supply-chain
- Spain’s Catastrophic Floods: Citrus Industry Faces €192M Blow | Food and Drink Digital, accessed January 15, 2025, https://fooddigital.com/food/why-global-orange-shortage-is-forcing-industry-to-innovate